Axis Tactics 16th November, 2025 - Global Tactical Trends Across Asset Classes

| How to fix the UK | Global Tactical Trends across Indices, FX & Commodities | Positions Update |

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The UK Economy and how to fix it…

In one of the early newsletters which were issued in the current format, we were not short of blunt criticism of both Rachel Reeves’s ability to manage the big job at no.11 as well as the lack of depth in their support team. We’re not happy at all to have been right about this, as a failure to launch any growth at all, spikes in 5 Year Swaps and ripples of concern all across the funding line are not good for anyone, anywhere. Too many mis-steps and gaffes to date lead us to believe that more policy and strategy mistakes in the near future are more likely than less.

It does not matter that the flip-flop on policy may be as a result of possibly better growth expectations and a gift from the OBR in the form of a smaller fiscal hole to fill (although it’s still lots and lots of billions). What matters here is that the people holding the big jobs have absolutely no idea at all on how to communicate and interact with the capital markets.

We do not write or advise from the perspective of classical economics, nor in the style of practising economists. You would know if we did, as we would never be able to recommend anything or offer a straightforward opinion, ever.

Our solution is simple and might upset a few people. A 50Bp Cut in UK interest rates, immediately.

Growth is basically zero. Productivity is terrible. Sentiment for both Business and Individuals is also poor. Unemployment trending up.

But - what about inflation…? Yes - we agree that it’s a little high although much of the consumer-inflation experience is down to geopolitical factors. And yes - Brexiteers - you did this to yourselves. Tariffs don’t help either.

Onto the concerns that such a cut in interest rates will destroy everything. With growth, spending, sentiment and all optimism conspicuously absent, any upward pressure on inflation from a cut is likely to be negligible or absent given the depressed state of other economic markers. Rachel Reeves’ UK Economy won’t just grow into growing no more than Prince Akeem of Zamunda (quoting Nietzsche in Coming to America) could fly into flying.

It won’t just happen - now is the time for assertive action. The markets don’t respect the UK Treasury, the Gilt market is nervous and if the BoE don’t step in to make a move, this Budget run-up is likely to be choppy.

Update on Recent Positions - Merger & Risk Arbitrage positions (from Axis Tactics 29th September, 2025 - ‘Tis the Season to be Tactical)

Corecard - Acquisition by Euronet completed on time.

International Money Express - We booked an early & quick profit. Transaction is due to complete in mid-2026 but we were happy to take the quick win and move on. 10% Return in ~6 Weeks.

All such positions, when opened, are presented within the Investment Recommendations Section of these Newsletters.

Global Macro Trends - Indices, FX, Commodities

For precise entry and exit points, as well as preferred issuers and equity names, please contact us. The below is indicative and macro-based guidance.

Trending Upwards

(Axis IM Analytics using Bloomberg & Axis IM Proprietary Data)

Volatility in the US and the EU seems to be basing here and trending upwards, raising a warning for short and medium term performance in Equity Indices. Both Gold and Silver, prima facie, seem to be solidly trending higher. Corn & Soybeans are trending higher.

Those who have access to our trading positions comments will already know our views on these, entry and exit points as well as other tactical trades we recommend.

Consistent with the strengthening trend in Volatility, the EU Stoxx 50, Dow 30 and the Nikkei are appearing to soften a little, even though they still appear in the ‘trending-up’ section. Brazil, trending strongly, has flashed an Overbought warning.

Trending Downwards

(Axis IM Analytics using Bloomberg & Axis IM Proprietary Data)

The S&P 500 Futures contract is losing momentum, also consistent with the increase in Volatility noted above. UK Bond Yields are trend-less at the moment but we notice an existential risk to the upside here with the Long Gilt Future exhibiting very poor trend characteristics. GBP, South African Rand (vs USD) and Bitcoin are also looking weak.

For current & precise entry/exit levels and intra-day position updates in real-time, please reach out to your Axis IM directly.

If you would like to view the Investment Recommendations Section below, please request access from your Axis point of contact.